Merced · first 14 days — live forecast · rest of month — climate corridor
🗺️ 14-day forecast map
Merced & neighbors — hit play
Every city on the map carries real forecast data from the same models as its city page, refreshed several times a day. The icon is the day's overall look; the number is the afternoon high.
Next 14 days at a glance
from the model forecast
Hottest day
107°
Wed, Aug 26
Coldest night
54°
Tue, Sep 1
Days with precip
0 / 14
of 14 forecast days
Nicest day
Tue, Sep 1
mild, dry, light wind
The next 4 weekends
plan ahead
Sat 29 – Sun 30 Aug
98° 58°
1% precip chance
Sat 5 – Sun 6 Sep
93° 55°
4% precip chance
Sat 12 – Sun 13 Sep
92° 57°
typical range
Sat 19 – Sun 20 Sep
91° 55°
typical range
30 days — Merced
14 forecast + 16 climatology
Wed · Today Sunny
107°69°1%⌄
Wind14 mph NW
Gusts27 mph
UV index9 – Very high
Precip chance1%
Sunrise06:27
Sunset19:39
Thu · Tomorrow Mostly cloudy
107°71°4%⌄
Wind13 mph NW
Gusts25 mph
UV index9 – Very high
Precip chance4%
Sunrise06:28
Sunset19:38
Friday 28/8 Mostly cloudy
101°75°4%⌄
Wind15 mph N
Gusts27 mph
UV index9 – Very high
Precip chance4%
Sunrise06:29
Sunset19:37
Saturday 29/8 Sunny
98°65°0%⌄
Wind15 mph W
Gusts24 mph
UV index9 – Very high
Precip chance0%
Sunrise06:30
Sunset19:35
Sunday 30/8 Sunny
93°58°1%⌄
Wind12 mph W
Gusts21 mph
UV index8 – Very high
Precip chance1%
Sunrise06:30
Sunset19:34
Monday 31/8 Sunny
92°58°1%⌄
Wind15 mph W
Gusts26 mph
UV index8 – Very high
Precip chance1%
Sunrise06:31
Sunset19:32
Tuesday 1/9 Sunny
92°54°1%⌄
Wind10 mph W
Gusts20 mph
UV index8 – Very high
Precip chance1%
Sunrise06:32
Sunset19:31
Wednesday 2/9 Mostly cloudy
94°59°8%⌄
Wind9 mph NW
Gusts18 mph
UV index7 – High
Precip chance8%
Sunrise06:33
Sunset19:29
Thursday 3/9 Mostly cloudy
96°63°8%⌄
Wind11 mph W
Gusts21 mph
UV index8 – Very high
Precip chance8%
Sunrise06:34
Sunset19:28
Friday 4/9 Mostly cloudy
98°64°3%⌄
Wind13 mph W
Gusts26 mph
UV index9 – Very high
Precip chance3%
Sunrise06:35
Sunset19:26
Saturday 5/9 Mostly cloudy
93°63°4%⌄
Wind11 mph W
Gusts22 mph
UV index8 – Very high
Precip chance4%
Sunrise06:35
Sunset19:25
Sunday 6/9 Sunny
93°55°1%⌄
Wind9 mph NW
Gusts19 mph
UV index8 – Very high
Precip chance1%
Sunrise06:36
Sunset19:23
Monday 7/9 Sunny
95°57°1%⌄
Wind12 mph NW
Gusts24 mph
UV index9 – Very high
Precip chance1%
Sunrise06:37
Sunset19:22
Tuesday 8/9 Sunny
105°67°0%⌄
Wind11 mph NW
Gusts22 mph
UV index10 – Very high
Precip chance0%
Sunrise06:38
Sunset19:20
Wednesday 9/9 Light rain (climatological)
90°57°1.8 mm⌄
Day≈85–95°
Night≈51–62°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Thursday 10/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
95°60°20%⌄
Day≈90–101°
Night≈55–65°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Friday 11/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
93°58°20%⌄
Day≈87–98°
Night≈53–64°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Saturday 12/9 Light rain (climatological)
91°57°1.4 mm⌄
Day≈85–96°
Night≈52–62°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Sunday 13/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
92°58°20%⌄
Day≈86–97°
Night≈52–63°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Monday 14/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
89°56°20%⌄
Day≈83–94°
Night≈51–61°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Tuesday 15/9 Light rain (climatological)
88°56°0.8 mm⌄
Day≈83–94°
Night≈50–61°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Wednesday 16/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
91°57°20%⌄
Day≈85–96°
Night≈52–62°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Thursday 17/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
94°59°20%⌄
Day≈89–100°
Night≈54–65°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Friday 18/9 Light rain (climatological)
96°61°1.1 mm⌄
Day≈91–102°
Night≈55–66°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Saturday 19/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
91°57°20%⌄
Day≈85–96°
Night≈52–63°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Sunday 20/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
87°55°20%⌄
Day≈81–92°
Night≈49–60°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Monday 21/9 Light rain (climatological)
84°53°0.8 mm⌄
Day≈79–90°
Night≈48–59°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Tuesday 22/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
87°55°20%⌄
Day≈82–93°
Night≈50–61°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Wednesday 23/9 Partly cloudy (climatological)
91°57°20%⌄
Day≈85–96°
Night≈52–63°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
Thursday 24/9 Light rain (climatological)
94°59°1.6 mm⌄
Day≈88–99°
Night≈53–64°
Precip≈0.6 in / September
(climatological)Typical range for these dates · 1991–2020
How does a 30-day outlook work?
The first 14 days are a live model forecast. The back half of the month shows the typical range for those dates — useful for planning, not a literal prediction.
First 14 days: a real forecast, blended from NBM, ECMWF and GFS runs. Trust it most inside three days; by the second week treat it as a lean, not a promise.
Rest of the month: past day 14 we stop pretending to forecast and switch to the climate corridor — the range those dates have produced over three decades computed directly for Merced, with mild week-to-week wiggle.
Good question for this page: "Is late August usually humid in Chicago?" Bad question: "Do I need an umbrella on the 29th?" — three weeks out no one knows, and that's the honest answer.